By Jim Sanders
Los Angeles Times
January 27, 2008
With the economy souring and massive problems looming, California could find itself with a lame duck governor negotiating with novice leaders in both the Assembly and Senate by year's end.
Only twice before since passage of term limits in 1990 have both houses of the Legislature switched leaders at roughly the same time, altering dynamics of the state's highest-level talks. Assembly Speaker Fabian Núñez and Senate President Pro Tem Don Perata must pack their bags in December unless voters pass Proposition 93, which would reduce total years that could be served in the Legislature but provide extra time for incumbents. Senate Republican leader Dick Ackerman of Irvine also is scheduled to be termed out this year, which would leave Assembly Republican leader Mike Villines of Clovis as the Legislature's only veteran chief. As Proposition 93 falters in the polls, potential successors already are jockeying for position, although two of the leaders – Núñez and Perata – have made it clear that they won't step down soon. Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has endorsed Proposition 93 partly because of his desire to see continuity in leadership and his belief that frequent turnover hampers legislative expertise and gives special interests too much power. Lawmakers currently can serve up to eight years in the Senate and six in the Assembly. Proposition 93 would reduce the maximum from 14 to 12, but allow all to be served in one house. Incumbents would receive additional years in a transition period. Schwarzenegger told The Bee's editorial board this month that he came to the Capitol favoring frequent legislative turnover but has changed his mind since taking office in 2003. "It sounds good to go and say, 'Let's take the time away' … but the reality of it is when you work in there, and I've now just started working with Fabian and with Perata and Ackerman, and all those characters together – you start building a trust, and all the sudden they're gone next year." Opponents paint Proposition 93 as a thinly veiled scheme by Núñez and Perata to save their jobs. Retaining the status quo is senseless and self-defeating, they claim. "This is a Legislature whose leadership has repeatedly broken its promises and failed to deliver results on a wide range of issues," said Kevin Spillane, spokesman for No on 93. Schwarzenegger, urging continuity of leadership, can point to deals struck with Democrats Perata and Núñez in years past on landmark global warming legislation, prescription drug discounts and a $37 billion bond package for roads, schools, housing and flood control. But the state's top leaders have failed to reach agreement on numerous other high-stakes issues, including overhauling the health care system, solving water woes, improving public schools and fixing a stressed prison system. Former state Controller Steve Westly, a spokesman for the Yes on 93 campaign, noted that the state is wrestling with a massive budget shortfall – projected at $14.5 billion. "I can't imagine how difficult a time the governor would have solving the budget deficit if three out of four of the state's top legislative leaders were brand-spanking new," he said. But Lew Uhler, president of the National Tax Limitation Committee and a co-author of the state's existing term limits, said it is silly to argue that leaders who helped create the state's budget mess are best equipped to solve it. "That's hard to imagine," Uhler said. Bruce Cain, director of the University of California's Washington, D.C., Center, supports Proposition 93 but said it's simplistic to assume that longer service always produces wiser decisions. "The electricity crisis occurred with the support of a lot of very experienced legislators," Cain said. But novice Assembly and Senate leaders, coupled with inexperienced committee chairs, can make it harder to provide effective oversight of state agencies or to fight back if a strong-willed governor pushed an ineffective agenda, according to Cain. Proposition 93 is supported by only 39 percent of likely voters, according to a Field Poll last week. Núñez and Perata have made it clear that they plan to remain leaders, even if the measure fails, until their terms expire Dec. 1. Potential successors to Núñez and Perata already are quietly lining up support in case Proposition 93 fails. Among Senate Democrats, Darrell Steinberg of Sacramento has emerged as the front-runner over Alex Padilla of Los Angeles to become the next leader. Assembly Democrats are expected to choose from among Karen Bass, Kevin de León and Mike Feuer of Los Angeles, Hector De La Torre of South Gate, Fiona Ma of San Francisco, Alberto Torrico of Newark, Chuck Calderon of Whittier and Ted Lieu of Torrance. For the past decade, the Assembly has been led by a Southern California lawmaker and the Senate by one from Northern California. Núñez is from Los Angeles, Perata from Oakland. If Ackerman is termed out as Senate GOP leader, candidates to succeed him include George Runner of Lancaster, Dave Cogdill of Modesto and Dennis Hollingsworth of Temecula. Núñez, unlike Perata, has chilled jockeying for the Assembly speaker's job by warning Democratic colleagues, whose committee assignments he determines, not to push for the post until Proposition 93's fate is decided.
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