DAN WALTERS Recall bid looks like power play Sacramento Bee February 18, 2008 The year's oddest story of intrigue in California politics may be the recall drive mounted by Senate President Pro Tem Don Perata against Republican Sen. Jeff Denham – a campaign that appears to be proceeding even though Perata is being forced out of the Legislature. Three days after Perata's political fate was sealed by voters' rejection of a measure that would have changed term limits, the "Dump Denham" campaign submitted petitions with about 50,000 signatures to force a recall election. Recall leader Gary Robbins accused Denham, who was first elected in 2002 and re-elected in 2006 to his second and last term, of "broken promises, his backroom deals with special interests and his dishonest way of treating the people who elected him." Through a spokesman, Denham termed the recall "shameful" and "nothing more than Perata's attempt to intimidate and punish" the senator for refusing to vote for the state budget last year. What's happening here? Denham was just one of many Republican senators to hold out on the budget, demanding more spending cuts. And, it should be conceded, those Republicans were right in warning that the budget was dangerously out of balance, even if their holdout was somewhat clumsily done. The state now faces a $14.5 billion deficit that may be growing. There are other factors, starting with the fact that Denham occupies a seat designed for a Democrat in the 2001 bipartisan gerrymander of legislative districts. The 12th Senate District sprawls over several counties in the San Joaquin Valley between Stockton and Fresno and westward into Monterey and San Benito counties. It was originally created for Dennis Cardoza, a Democratic assemblyman, but Cardoza opted to run for Congress in 2002. Former Democratic Assemblyman Rusty Areias ran but lost to Denham, a businessman, after a very expensive, very nasty campaign. Denham had been considered to be a relative moderate who was courted by Democrats with a committee chairmanship in hopes that he would side with them occasionally. But Denham lined up with other Republicans on the budget, and his holdout was critical because Perata needed two Republican senators to reach the two-thirds margin and had just one, Abel Maldonado. The fact that Democrats are just two seats shy of 27 in the Senate is another factor in the recall. Reaching 27 would give Democrats a hammer on the budget and taxes in the Senate and isolate the Republican minority in the Assembly. Were Denham to be forced out two years early, Democrats could reach their goal later this year by taking another Senate seat away from Republicans. The defeat of Proposition 93, the term-limit modification measure, also forces Sen. Tom McClintock, the Senate's most vociferous conservative, out of his suburban seat in Los Angeles, Ventura and Santa Barbara counties. McClintock's 19th District was set up as safely Republican in the 2001 gerrymander, with a six-percentage-point GOP voter registration edge. The margin has since shriveled to just three points, and Democrats believe they have a realistic chance of taking the seat. A very liberal former Democratic assemblywoman, Hannah-Beth Jackson, and a very conservative former GOP assemblyman, Tony Strickland, are expected to be the foes in the 19th District, which is very centrist in its ideological orientation. All of that, however, hinges on the Denham recall in the 12th District, where Democratic voters outnumber Republicans by 10 percentage points. Ironically, the recall may help Denham's career since he may run for lieutenant governor in 2010. He will gain statewide name identification, endear himself to Republicans and, as a recall target, is exempt from fundraising limits. Dan Walters - dwalters@sacbee.com Copyright 1999-2008, California Coastal Coalition Phone: (760) 944-3564